Artwork by Ponz!

The Sour Age
July 27, 2010
Percentages
By: Jack Skunk

Beyond the shadow of a doubt, this has been one of the most intriguing leagues in the history of Gainesville. The list of surprises is not short. For example, who would have bet a single dime that Red would wind up in the 9/10 game? Or, what about Royal having its only loss to Forest- the 10th seed at the time?

To honor those slim chance oddities, I’m going to play a little game called “Percentages” with my good friend Mr. Gainesville. He’s elected to remain anonymous, because unlike myself, people still like him. Now, on to the game:

What is the percentage of Orange winning all of League?

Jack Skunk: Now look: I’ve been rough on Kek in the past, but there’s no getting around it: Tang is good, Tang is for real, and with only one loss by 1 point, there is no question that these guys have an extremely good chance of winning it all. They’re a well oiled, well managed machine, with outstanding ladies (like my new crush Nicole), so I like their chances. Still- they can’t take White for granted, and if they play Royal in the finals, then it’s going to be tough. So, it’s pretty clear to me that they have a 50% chance of bringing home the bacon.

Mr. Gainesville: Now see, Skunk? You’re over correcting. 50% is way too high. Sure, they’ve had one loss on universe, but they’ve had two wins on universe as well- against two teams they should have crushed, including the emotionally wrecked All My Best Friends of Maroon, and a White team that (if I recall correctly) only had one woman. I’m kind of thinking that it’s a 50% shot if they get passed White. So, I’ll take the easy way out and call it 30%. Orange should beat White, but it’s not a given.

What is the percentage of the 9/10 game happening?

Jack Skunk: There’s no reason to waste too much time on this one. What’s the difference between being declared the 9th or 10th place team in league? Not much. I am extremely confident that this game won’t happen, but I’ve been surprised before, so I’ll call this one 3%.

Mr. Gainesville: 3%?! Try ZERO percent. Maroon might show up, but there’s no way that Red will- unless they’re coming for the beer. I think even the Lieutenant said he wouldn’t play in that game.

What is the percentage for Gold’s chances of making it to the Finals?

Jack Skunk: Pilgrim’s Know Expectations is a big reason why I’m playing this game. Their chances of beating Red, I would have said without a moment’s hesitation, was zero, nada, zip! Of course, I was wrong, and Gold is clearly much better than what anyone thought. The problem, however, for Pilgrim and Joel and the rest of them is that they’re going against the Showkiller himself, and he rarely ever loses a Semis game. Plus, they’re a focused, well organized team, who by the way- will settle nothing for nothing short of total and complete victory. Forgive me for saying this, Pilgrim, but Know Expectations has a 0.25% chance of winning. That’s a quarter of a percent, NOT 25.

Mr. Gainesville: You see, I saw Gold’s game against Red, or at least, the last 6 or 7 points. Joel- without a doubt- is one of the premier players in league, and how many game winners from Joel were dropped? 3 or 4, right? If that had not happened, then they win 15-11. I like this Gold team, I like it’s athleticism, and it looks like they’ve been firing on all cylinders. Still, Royal is a monster, so I’ll say that Gold has a 10% chance of making the Finals, and then 9% of winning it all.

The percentage of Forest winning the Chump bracket:

Mr. Gainesville: Now, of course, we’d be remiss to ignore the chump bracket. Robert and Cynthia’s Gang finally started to click at the end of the season by beating Royal and then giving Orange a run for its money during Q2. In front of them though, they have Black and then, presumably, Navy. And yet- like Skunk- I’ve always kind of liked this roster. So, I’ll go out on a limb and say they have a 30% of winning some hardware.

Jack Skunk: I love Mr. Gainesville, but sometimes he’s delusional. Do you remember what Forest’s regular season record was? 1-8, and there’s no way to sweep that under the carpet. 4-5 might be bad luck, 3-6 might be a few absences, but 1-8 means that there was something wrong. Oh- and make no mistake, if Navy is all there, then they easily win it all. So, at best, Forest has a 12% chance, and that’s only if a miracle happens.

The percentage of Orange and Royal meeting in the finals:

Mr. Gainesville: If I were betting actual money on the championship bracket, it would be on one of these two teams. Now, I do like Gold, but I just don’t see them getting through Royal. White, on the other hand, might have a chance of upsetting Orange. It looks like they’ll have Palmer, Meg, and Evan, so they have a chance. So- based on that, I’ll say that there is a 40% chance.

Jack Skunk: There is an 80% chance that there will an Orange and Blue Final, and here’s why: these are THE best two teams in League. It is a given that Royal will take out Gold, and a very high probability that the Lieutenant will choke- yet again- as the pressure mounts. But you know, it’s not even that: it’s just, quite simply, that these are two extremely good teams that will take care of business and make it to the final dance of the season.

Jack Skunk: Ok everyone, that’s it. I’ll be back on Thursday (by myself) to give you the last predictions of the season. Before I go, here’s a quick recap of the percentages:

Topic Jack Skunk Mr. Gainesville
Orange wins League? 50% 30%
9/10 Game happening? 3% 0%
Gold makes the Finals? 0.25% 10%
Forest winning the Chump bracket? 12% 30%
Orange and Royal meeting in the Finals? 80% 40%